The NRL's heavyweights are in freefall, with the reigning premiers struggling to climb back up. The question on everyone's mind is whether an entire top four can miss the finals the following season. History says no, but the odds are stacked against the Storm, Broncos, Raiders, and Bulldogs. These teams are currently sitting between positions 11 and 15 on the NRL ladder, with the Titans in between, after a mostly miserable start to 2026. The NRL's rule of awarding two points for a bye distorts the true mid-season snapshot, with Melbourne ranking behind the eighth-placed Rabbitohs. The drop-off of 2004 premiers Canterbury, the runner-up Roosters, and fourth-placed Panthers in 2005 is the only time three of the previous year's top four have missed the finals. The Broncos, Raiders, and Bulldogs are on track for a similar fate, with Melbourne showing signs of life after a slump and Brisbane's revival from a similar plight last year offering some hope. The manufactured game speed and fatigue of endless six-again restarts have impacted the Storm, Bulldogs, and other teams, with the game's livewires struggling to adapt. The lack of a dummy half and the weight of possession can be fatal, with composed, game-managing halves proving crucial. The Bulldogs' Lachlan Galvin and Matt Burton are ill-suited for this role, while Melbourne's depth issues up front and on the edges have been exposed by injuries. The salary cap rarely works as intended, with the last eight premierships shared between three perennial powerhouses. However, the NRL-era landscape can shake into a new order, as seen with the Tigers' 2005 title and the South Sydney, North Queensland, and Cronulla premierships in 2014-16. The top four drop-off from last year might point to a similar shift, with the emergence of the Dolphins, Warriors, and Manly. But Penrith, once again out in front, has missed the top four for the first time in five years. The NRL's heavyweights are in a precarious position, with the question of whether they can recover hanging in the balance.
